爱华网没有结局的故事
First America, then Europe. Now the debt crisis has reached emerging markets.
首先是美国，然后是欧洲。现在债务危机已经触及新兴市场。
IT IS close to ten years since America’s housing bubble burst. It is six since Greece’s insolvency sparked the euro crisis. Linking these episodes was a rapid build-up of debt, followed by a bust. A third instalment in the chronicles of debt is now unfolding. This time the setting is emerging markets. Investors have already dumped assets in the developing world, but the full agony of the slowdown still lies ahead.
距离美国住房泡沫破裂已有近10年了。而距离希腊破产触发欧元危机也已有6年。一个快速的债务积累将这些片段连接起来，一次突击围捕紧随其后。债务史上第三个分期付款如今开始展露。这一次所处的背景是新兴市场。投资者已经抛去了在发展中国家的财富，但是经济放缓所带来的痛苦仍然在前方等待。
Debt crises in poorer countries are nothing new. In some ways this one will be less dramatic than the defaults and broken currency pegs that marked crashes in the 1980s and 1990s. Today’s emerging markets, by and large, have more flexible exchange rates, bigger reserves and a smaller share of their debts in foreign currency. Nonetheless, the bust will hit growth harder than people now expect, weakening the world economy even as the Federal Reserve begins to raise interest rates.
在更加贫困的国家里，债务危机不是什么新事。某种意义上，这个要比汇率制度的缺失和破败（标志着1980s和1990s的经济崩溃）还要不明显。今日的新兴市场在外汇方面基本上有更加灵活的汇率、更大的储蓄和更小的债券股份。然而，破产比人们所预期中的将更加严重地打击经济的增长，甚至当美联储开始提升利率时，世界经济仍会被削弱。
In this section The never-ending story A new era How to make the case The right to fright Hare-grained ReprintsRelated topics World economy Chinese economy Europe Euro zone AsiaChronicle of a debt foretold
债务史预示
In all three volumes of this debt trilogy, the cycle began with capital flooding across borders, driving down interest rates and spurring credit growth. In America a glut of global savings, much of it from Asia, washed into subprime housing, with disastrous results. In the euro area, thrifty Germans helped to fund booms in Irish housing and Greek public spending.
在债务三部曲里，时代开始于资本流跨境，压低利率，并且刺激信贷增长。在美国，全球储蓄过剩，这些储蓄大部分来自亚洲，最终流入次贷住房，带来了灾难性的结果。在欧元区，节俭的德国资助繁荣爱尔兰住房和希腊政府开支。
As these rich-world bubbles turned to bust, sending interest rates to historic lows, the flow of capital changed direction. Money flowed from rich countries to poorer ones. That was at least the right way around. But this was yet another binge: too much borrowed too fast, and lots of the debt taken on by firms to finance imprudent projects or purchase overpriced assets. Overall, debt in emerging markets has risen from 150% of GDP in 2009 to 195%. Corporate debt has surged from less than 50% of GDP in 2008 to almost 75%. China’s debt-to-GDP ratio has risen by nearly 50 percentage points in the past four years.
当这些富裕世界的泡沫转向破灭时，利率创历史性新低，资金流转变方向。金钱从富裕国家流入愈加贫穷的国家。至少那是正确的方向。但这也触及另外一个热点：太多资金被借地太快，并且很多公司的债务是资助一些不明智的项目或者购买定价过高的商品。总之，新兴市场的债务已经从2009年GDP的150%升到195%。公司债券已经从2008年少于GDP的50%涨到几乎75%。在过去四年里，中国的债券与GDP比值已经升了接近50个百分点。
Now this boom, too, is coming to an end. Slower Chinese growth and weak commodity prices have darkened prospects even as a stronger dollar and the approach of higher American interest rates dam the flood of cheap capital. Next comes the reckoning. Some debt cycles end in crisis and recession—witness both the subprime debacle and the euro zone’s agonies. Others result merely in slower growth, as borrowers stop spending and lenders scuttle for cover. The scale of the emerging-market credit boom ensures that its aftermath will hurt. In countries where private-sector indebtedness has risen by more than 20% of GDP, the pace of GDP growth slows by an average of almost three percentage points in the three years after the peak of borrowing (see article). But just how much pain lies ahead will also depend on local factors, from the scale of the exchange-rate adjustment that has already taken place to the size of countries’ reserves. Crudely, most emerging economies can be put into one of three groups.
现在，如此繁荣也即将走近尾声。即使更加强大的美元和更高的美国利率可以阻挡廉价资本的洪流，中国减慢的经济增长速度和微弱的商品价格仍然使前景黑暗。接下来将会是清算。一些债务周期终止危机和经济衰退---目睹了次贷崩溃和欧元区的垂死挣扎。当借款人停止开支，贷款人撤掉保护伞时，其他的债务周期仅会导致经济增长减慢。新兴市场信贷繁荣的尺度使其余波受损。在一些国家，其私人部门债务上升了GDP的20%以上，在借贷高峰后，GDP的增长速度在三年内几乎平均降低了3个百分点（见文章），但是未来有多少艰辛还将取决于局部因素，包括从已经发生的交换率调整规模到国家储蓄的大小。大致地，大部分新兴经济可能放进三个群体之一。
The first group includes those for which the credit boom will be followed by a prolonged hangover, not a heart attack. The likes of South Korea and Singapore belong in this category; so, crucially for the world economy, does China. It still has formidable defences to protect it against an exodus of capital. It has an enormous current-account surplus. Its foreign-exchange reserves stood at $3.5 trillion in October, roughly three times as much as its external debt. Policymakers have the ability to bail out borrowers, and show little sign of being willing to tolerate defaults. Shovelling problems under the carpet does not get rid of them. Firms that ought to go bust stagger on; dud loans pile up on banks’ balance-sheets; excess capacity in sectors like steel leads to dumping elsewhere. All this saps growth, but it also puts off the threat of a severe crisis.
第一组是那些国家，其内，紧随信贷繁荣的是延长的宿醉而非心脏病突发。诸如南朝鲜和新加坡这类属于此系列。因此，中国对于世界经济至关重要。它仍然有一个强大的防御体系以保护其免于资本外逃。它有一个巨大的经常项目顺差。它的外汇储备在10月份保持在3.5万亿，大体是外债的3倍。政策制定者有能力使借贷者摆脱困境，并且也没有迹象表明其愿意容忍违约。把问题掩盖起来并没有摆脱问题。本该破产的公司还在硬撑；不良贷款堆积在银行的资产负债表上；部门产能过量，如钢铁，导致倾销随处可见。这一切都不断削减经济增长，但是它也延缓了一次严重危机的威胁。
For that risk, look instead to countries in the second category—those that lack the same means to bail out imprudent borrowers or to protect themselves from capital flight. Of the larger economies in this category, three stand out. Brazil’s corporate-bond market has grown 12-fold since 2007. Its current-account deficit means that it relies on foreign capital; its political paralysis and fiscal inflexibility offer nothing to reassure investors. Malaysia’s banks have lots of foreign liabilities, and its households have the highest debt-to-income ratio of any big emerging market; its cushion of foreign-exchange reserves looks thin and its current-account surplus is forecast to shrink. Turkey combines a current-account deficit, high inflation and foreign-currency-denominated debts that have become more onerous as the lira has fallen.
对于这一风险，我们应该注意第二系列的国家----他们缺乏相同的方式使不明智的借贷者走出困境或者保护自己免于资本外逃。在这一系列国家中，更大的经济体里包含三个很突出国家。自2007年，巴西的公司债券增加了12倍。它的经常项目资金表明它依赖外国资本。它的政治无能和财政灵活性无法使投资者安心。马来西亚的银行有许多对外负债，它的所有家庭拥有在任何大的新兴市场中最高的债务收入比；它的外汇储备缓冲带看似很薄弱，它的经常账户盈余预计将萎缩。土耳其结合经常账户赤字、高通胀和当里拉下跌时逐渐繁重的外币计价债务。
The third group of countries consists of those emerging markets that will either escape serious trouble or have already gone through the worst. Of the big ones, India is in healthier shape than any other big emerging economy and Russia might just surpass expectations. The rouble has already gone through a bigger adjustment than any other major currency, and the economy shows tentative signs of responding. Argentina, a perennial flop but one with little private debt, could also shine if a reformist wins the presidency this month.
第三组国家包括这些新兴市场---或者摆脱困窘或者已经走过最难时期。在大的经济体中，相比于其他任何一个大的新兴市场，印度处于更加健康的状态，而俄罗斯可能仅仅超出了预期。卢布已经度过了比其他任何一个主要货币还要大的调整期，经济展现初步的回升迹象。阿根廷，一个常年失败却几乎没有私人负债的国家，如果在本月其改革派赢得总统宝座，也将可能迎来经济的曙光。
Such brighter spots aside, everything else points to another pallid year for the world economy. The IMF has forecast higher growth in emerging markets next year; the lesson of past debt cycles suggests another year of slowdown is more likely. And weakness in the developing world, which accounts for over half of the global economy (in purchasing-power-parity terms), matters far more than it once did. Lower growth in emerging markets hits the profits of multinationals and the cash flows of exporters. Low commodity prices help oil importers but ratchet up the pressure on indebted miners, drillers and traders, which between them owe around $3 trillion.
除去如此明亮的区域，其他的每一件事情表明了世界经济的又一个苍白年。IMF已经预测明年新兴市场会有更高增长；由过去债务周期的教训知，很有可能另一年也会经济下滑。在几乎占一半全球经济的发展中国家里，弱点远远比其过去发挥更大影响。在新兴市场内更低的经济增长打击跨国公司的利润和出口的现金流。低商品价格有助于石油进口，却逐渐增大了负债矿工们、钻井工和贸易商的压力，在他们中，大约欠3万亿债。
Volume four?
第四卷？
Europe’s open economy is most exposed to a cooling in emerging-market demand, which is why more monetary easing there looks likely. But America’s policy dilemma is more acute. The divergence in monetary policy between it and the rest of the world will put upward pressure on the dollar, hurting exports and earnings. And waves of capital may again seek out the American consumer as the borrower of choice. If so, the world’s debt crisis may end up right back where it started.
欧洲开放的经济大部分表现出对于新兴市场需求的冷淡，这就是为什么货币宽松政策有可能发生。但是美国政策困境更加严重。它和世界其他国家之间存在货币政策上的分歧，这将提升美元的压力，损伤出口和收益。资金波澜可能再次寻求美国顾客作为选择的借款人。如果这样，世界债务危机可能结束，最终正好回到它的起点。
